Large guaranteed-income pilots reduced employment by an average of 3.2 percentage points
The Receipt · Friday, 11 September 2026
Why it matters
This is direct evidence on whether unconditional cash payments change work outcomes, a key trade-off in evaluating income-support policies. The larger trials point to a measurable employment reduction, but the report says the evidence may not predict the effects of a permanent nationwide program under different economic conditions.
What happened
An analysis of 30 randomized US guaranteed-income pilots with published employment outcomes found that employment increased by an average of 0.8 percentage points overall. But the four pilots with treatment groups of at least 500 participants—representing 55% of all treatment-group participants—showed an average employment decline of 3.2 percentage points, equivalent to an average income elasticity of -0.18. The underlying set covered 122 pilots across 33 states and Washington, DC, with $481 million paid to more than 40,000 recipients; most studies were small, had substantial attrition, and the strongest studies took place during or soon after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Players & places
- United States
- American Enterprise Institute
- Stanford Basic Income Lab